Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is expected to report a moderate growth in net sales in the range of 3-9.8 per cent for the fiscal fourth quarter ended March 31, 2023 and double-digit growth in EBITDA with estimates going as high as 20 per cent. “Reliance Industries (RIL) is expected to witness a strong 20 per cent YoY EBITDA jump, helped by robust OTC metrics. RIL’s YoY trends remain muted this quarter,” said ICICI Securities. Brokerage firms said that the consolidated EBITDA is expected to increase on-year due to “sequential improvements across all the key segments”. HDFC Securities said, “We expect RIL’s consolidated EBITDA to increase to Rs 378 billion, up +20 per cent YoY.”
According to brokerage firms and analysts, RIL is expected to clock a profit rise in the range of 0.3-7.0 per cent during the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Sharekhan said, “RIL’s valuations are reasonable given strong growth outlook and is favourable for investment given run-up to its AGM.” Reliance Industries Ltd will announce its fourth quarter results on April 21. Earlier in a regulatory filing, the company said, “…a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company is scheduled to be held on Friday, April 21, 2023, inter alia, to consider and approve the standalone and consolidated audited financial results of the Company for the quarter / year ended March 31, 2023.”
ICICI SecuritiesRevenue: Rs 2.36 lakh crore; up 14%EBITDA: Rs 38,000 crore; up 20%PAT: Rs 18,000 crore; up 4%
HDFC SecuritiesNet revenue: Rs 2.15 lakh crore; up 3.8%EBITDA: Rs 38,000 crore; up 20.4%Adjusted PAT: Rs 18,000 crore; up 11.5%
Emkay GlobalNet sales: Rs 2.19 lakh crore; up 5.8%EBITDA: Rs 37,000 crore; up 17.4%PAT: Rs 16,000 crore; down 0.3%
Kotak Institutional EquitiesNet sales: Rs 2.27 lakh crore; up 9%EBITDA: Rs 36,000 crore; up 16%Reported PAT: Rs 17,000 crore; up 3%
SharekhanSales: Rs 2,13,734 crore; up 3.1%OPM: 16.9%PAT: Rs 16,960 crore; up 4.7%
Elara CapitalNet sales: Rs 2.14 lakh crore; up 3%EBITDA: Rs 37,000 crore; up 19%Recurring PAT: Rs 19,000 crore; up 7%
RIL’s likely sectoral performance for Q4FY23, compared on sequential basis
“Overall, we expect RIL’s consolidated EBITDA to grow 7 per cent QoQ and PAT 5 per cent QoQ, with higher depreciation and higher interest costs offsetting the operating earnings to some extent,” said ICICI Securities. In terms of different business verticals, RIL’s O2C, digital and retail businesses are expected to witness a ‘robust growth’. “We expect RIL’s 4QFY23 EBITDA to rise 4.3 per cent QoQ to Rs 368 billion due to robust growth in O2C, digital and retail businesses. While we expect RIL’s EPS to grow at a strong 13-15 per cent CAGR over the next 3-5 years given its industry leading capabilities across businesses,” said JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited.
HDFC Securities said, “Oil-to-chemicals (O2C) EBITDA/tonne of crude processed is estimated to increase by ~4 per cent QoQ, owing to an improvement in petroleum product cracks and an improvement in petchem margins QoQ. We expect EBITDA to increase by 14 per cent YoY to Rs 42.1 billion from its retail segment. We have estimated ~5mn subscriber addition and ARPU of Rs 179 in Q4.”
Prabhudas Lilladher bets on RIL’s Jio and retail segment performance. “We expect steady Jio performance (3.3 per cent QoQ revenue growth and 2.1 per cent QoQ ARPU hike), while retail segment profitability should be resilient,” the brokerage firm said. Further, it also maintained that RIL results will be lower due to “QoQ decline in diesel, ATF spreads despite factoring in lower windfall tax impact”.
Meanwhile, Emkay Global said, “For Jio, we expect net subscriber addition of ~5.5 million, with a 1 per cent rise in ARPU to ~Rs 179. Reported Retail EBITDA should rise by 5 per cent QoQ to Rs 50 billion, while upstream EBITDA should be up 2 per cent QoQ on better gas volumes.”
Kotak Institutional Equities, added, “For RIL, we expect QoQ better earnings in all key segments. OMCs should benefit from fuel over-recoveries and resilient refining margins. In O2C, refining margins remain resilient, windfall tax impact should be further reduced, and there would be marginal recovery in petchem. We expect standalone EBITDA to increase 7 per cent QoQ (10 per cent YoY). For Jio, we estimate EBITDA to rise 2 per cent QoQ (16 per cent YoY), driven by higher net adds and QoQ stable ARPU at ~Rs 178. For Retail, we expect EBITDA to grow 2 per cent QoQ (on festive quarter) and 19 per cent YoY.”