By Rahul Shah
Volatility is the name of the game; the Equity benchmark index posted its second week of declines after tensions on the Ukraine-Russia border and the prospects of higher U.S. interest rates led to volatile trading. BSE Sensex slipped 320 points or 0.6% to close at 57833 and Nifty 50 index declined 98 points or 0.6% to close at 17276 against the previous week close. Nifty Metal and PSU Banks witnessed biggest losers this week and declined over 4% each. Mid-cap, small cap, realty, auto and pharma index shed between 1-3%. However, Nifty IT Index managed to end positive against the previous week close (up 0.3%).
Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting showed that officials plan to start raising rates soon. Among the geo-political front, it was a no-brainer that a deterioration of the Ukraine situation would exacerbate concerns about global price pressures if it disrupts Russian energy supplies. The concerns may linger though, and not just about the Russia-Ukraine war, but also the war on inflation by central banks and the war of nerves for investors across the world. Among the macro and micro data, gold spiked to an 8-month high of $1900/ounce this week. Positive factor is that the oil fell 6% this week from a peak of $97/bbl ahead of the development of the US-Iran nuclear deal. Traders apply a caution approach and avoid bargain hunting till clear trend emerges. Expect tension between Russia-Ukraine to continue till any new development between US-Russia.
Ukraine jitters have eased somewhat amid reports that the U.S. and Russia are planning to meet. However, it will take time for the final outcome between US-Russia because both are on opposite poles.
The Nifty index managed to hold 17200 zones. It formed a Bullish candle with long upper shadow on daily and a small bodied Bullish candle on weekly frame indicating tug of war between bulls and bears. Index got stuck in a range of 17200 to 17500 zones from last three sessions and a decisive range breakout is required to commence the next leg of rally. Now till it remains below 17350, weakness may be seen towards 17100 and 17000 zones whereas hurdles can be seen at 17400 and 17500 zones.
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL)Cmp: Rs 2,424
Reliance has formed a strong base near the 200 DMA and has given a consolidation breakout of last 13 trading sessions. It has formed a bullish candle on the daily scale indicating strength in the counter. RSI oscillator is also positively placed on the daily and weekly scale. Considering the current chart structure, we advise traders to buy the stock for a up move towards 2550 with a stop loss of 2380
Kotak Mahindra BankCmp: Rs 1,826, SL: Rs 1,775, Target: Rs1,930
Kotak Bank has formed a strong bullish candle on the daily scale at the major support zone indicating strength in the counter. RSI oscillator is also positively placed on the daily and weekly scale. Considering the current chart structure, we advise traders to buy the stock for a up move towards 1930 with a stop loss of 1775.
(Rahul Shah, Senior Vice President, Group Advisory Leader-PCG, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services)